Vietnam targets double-digit growth every year through 2030 after 8.18% H1 surge
Vietnam’s government will aim for annual double-digit growth from 2026 to 2030 after the economy expanded 8.18% in the first half of 2026, according to Standard Chartered.
Source: RSS · July 31, 2026 at 3:02 AM · AI-assisted report
KUALA LUMPUR, 31 JULY 2026 —
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Vietnam’s government will aim for annual double-digit growth from 2026 to 2030 after the economy expanded 8.18% in the first half of 2026, according to Standard Chartered.
Market Impact
International lenders have raised their forecasts following the stronger-than-expected outturn. Standard Chartered lifted its 2026 GDP growth estimate to 9.5% and projected 11% in 2027, while UOB and HSBC also upgraded their full-year 2026 calls to around 8.5%. The World Bank reclassified Vietnam as an upper-middle-income economy in July after gross national income per capita reached $4,970 in 2025.
Tim Leelahaphan, Standard Chartered’s senior economist for Thailand and Vietnam, said Vietnam entered the second half from a position of strength despite global inflation and geopolitical risks. Strong domestic demand, infrastructure investment and economic transformation would support more balanced growth, he added.
UOB attributed the 8.18% first-half expansion to broad-based gains across industry, construction, services and agriculture. HSBC said the economy had proved more resilient than expected, citing rebounds in public investment, exports, manufacturing and domestic consumption.
The World Bank upgrade followed export growth of more than 15% over 2024-2025 and average annual GNI growth near 10% during 2021-2025, one of the strongest performances in the region.
Yet economists warn that sustaining double-digit growth will require sharper policy focus. The Ministry of Finance estimates Vietnam needs 11.7% growth in the second half to meet the government’s 2026 target of at least 10%.
HSBC economist Vu Binh Minh said policymakers should watch the trade balance, inflation, the exchange rate and interest rates. By mid-July the trade deficit had widened to $20.46 billion, largely on machinery and equipment imports, while consumer price inflation averaged 4.38% in the first six months against the year-end ceiling of 4.5%.
The Asian Development Bank cautioned that faster import growth than exports and heavy reliance on imported inputs could erode macroeconomic stability. ADB chief economist Bui Minh Giap said the challenge was no longer just achieving high growth but ensuring it is sustainable, high-quality and stable.
ADB recommended a shift from investment-led growth to productivity-driven expansion centred on innovation, technology and a stronger domestic private sector. It urged deeper capital markets, more diversified financing and investment in strategic sectors such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
Public investment should prioritise transport infrastructure, logistics, digital infrastructure and healthcare, ADB said, to raise productivity and competitiveness. The government has set a 2026 disbursement target of 100% of public investment capital but Le Thanh Quan, director general of the Infrastructure Development Department, said faster disbursement alone is insufficient without improved project quality.
The Ministry of Finance also aims to lower the incremental capital-output ratio to 4.5-4.8 during 2026-2030 from 6.43 in the previous five-year period, a move that would signal higher efficiency in converting capital into growth.
For Malaysian business readers, Vietnam’s push for sustained double-digit growth highlights the need to diversify supply-chain exposure and deepen technological partnerships across Southeast Asia.