Malaysian Palm Oil Council sees August CPO prices between RM4,400 and RM4,650 per tonne

KUALA LUMPUR, 23 JULY 2026 —

The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects crude palm oil (CPO) prices to trade in a RM4,400 to RM4,650 per tonne range in August, supported by Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel mandate that started in July.

The mandate has pushed gasoil prices up 30% between early and mid-July, lifting gasoil above both palm oil and soybean oil, according to the MPOC.

Further gains in CPO are likely to be limited by softer demand and higher vegetable oil inventories in major consuming markets, the council said.

Malaysia’s palm oil production rose 8% month-on-month to 1.63 million tonnes in June 2026, but output remained 3% below June 2025. It was the fourth straight month of year-on-year decline.

Exports climbed 6.1% month-on-month to 1.20 million tonnes, though volumes were 4% below June 2025. The MPOC attributed the weaker performance to softer oils and fats consumption in China and India amid lingering effects of the West Asia conflict.

European vegetable oil prices were mixed in July. Palm oil and soybean oil gained 3% and 6% month-on-month, while sunflower oil and rapeseed oil fell 1% and 2%.

Strong biodiesel demand in the United States and Indonesia continues to provide a structural price floor for soybean oil and palm oil, the council said.

Malaysia’s near-term supply outlook remains favourable. June stocks rose to 2.5 million tonnes, while first-half 2026 production was broadly stable.

The higher oil extraction rate from fresh fruit bunches reached 20.08%, the highest in a decade, supported by favourable rainfall in 2025 that improved oil content in fruit bunches harvested this year.

The MPOC warned that an El Niño in early 2027 could lower the extraction rate through drier conditions.

Globally, oilseed production is set to slow. Combined output of soybeans, sunflower seeds and rapeseed is forecast to rise just 16.5 million tonnes in the 2026-2027 season, compared with the four-year average increase of 22.7 million tonnes.

Tighter exportable palm oil supply from South-East Asia since 2019 has raised reliance on soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oils, the MPOC noted.

Slower oilseed growth and steady biofuel-driven demand should keep vegetable oil prices supported, despite moderate near-term consumption in major markets.

India’s vegetable oil stocks remain high despite slower imports, reflecting weak consumption amid inflation. Restocking for Diwali may lift demand, as India typically imports about 30% of its annual vegetable oil needs between July and September.

Palm oil remains the most competitively priced major vegetable oil, positioning it to benefit from the seasonal restocking ahead of Diwali, the MPOC said.

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